Summary
Originally Posted: 2020-03-02
What a mixed week! Sunny and plus seven, snowy, and then cold and -20 Celsius! During the week I managed to join ARES. Spent time thinking about the Coronavirus and I’ll share my thoughts.
The crazy weather
First up, I think old man winter was fighting with spring. The first couple of days were sunny and beautiful, then snowy and dreary for a couple and then cold. From plus 7 at the beginning of the week to lows of minus 20 Celsius it was a wild temperature ride. The only good news is except for the couple of snowy days, I’ve been getting full charges on my batteries so it is wonderful to kick on a 2 hour movie at night and not worry about the drain on the batteries.
The snow was really heavy and moisture laden, causing most trees to be bent over. It is really amazing that my neighbours didn’t loose power as one tree onto one power line does it. So that was good as the weather was cold and most out here have a combination of wood stove and electric heat. The deer also benefited greatly, the cedar trees were bent way over allowing them to reach the green branches they would not have been able to reach.
ARES
I finally made the jump and joined the Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES). This group of people volunteers their time and personally owned radio equipment to assist in emergency situations where normal communications like cellphone are not available. For further information about the group I suggest going to this page. From what I can see I need to do some training so that should be fun.
CoronaVirus
Ok well I thought I should share my thoughts about this outbreak. First let me be clear I am not a medical professional so what I know is what I’ve read from many sources and my own interpretation, hence these are just my thoughts.
This is lethal, people are dying and when you see headlines like the 50% increase in Italy it is hard not to want to bunker down and head for the hills. As a matter of history during the Black Plague people who could left the cities in droves and went to the countryside. The numbers are staggering, growing and with announcements by companies like Apple that supply chain will be interrupted and stories about stores being emptied out here in North America ( read it here ) it is hard not panic.
While my thoughts are squarely with the hopes that everyone will be ok, I actually worry less about the short term impact of this than the long term. Short term many will die but this will not be the end of human race as we know it, just a lot of deaths. The real impact will be the economy, for example Hyundai stops some lines because of the virus affecting supply lines. Many people will loose their income, and keep in mind not just Hyundai and other manufacturers but the companies that supply these guys with parts like steel companies, technology companies etc. Sort of like an avalanche, a ridge of snow breaks and as it goes down the hill with more and more snow until the quantity can become a disaster.
First Don’t Panic
I know that is easier said then done. There are only three outcomes, these are:
- You don’t get the virus,
- You die from the virus, or
- You live through the virus.
I know a little bleak and over simplified but looking for the deeper meaning just clouds the picture. Let’s deal with these, if you don’t get it you worried for nothing and wasted a great deal of energy. If you die, well you don’t have anything to worry about that is over. Finally you live through it. It is really the first and last alternative that needs to be planned for.
Second think, think and think
This is the time to get as much information as you can, analyze it and determine your next steps. Don’t follow the crowds, my dad used to say, “If all you friends wanted to jump off the bridge would you?” The point was simple be of independent mind, Facebook, Twitter and the “Influencers” are not the ones to be listened to. Own your decisions and don’t base it on what others shared.
So the Economy Collapses what now?
You got through the virus but things are in shambles, supply chains have collapsed and your former job and/or company no longer exists. Ouch! This is the case I always fear, time to take inventory of your skills. Can you weld, are you a plumber, a farmer or electrican etc.? It is time to rebuild and those are the skills most needed. If you do not have those skills you are not likely to acquire them at a time like this, this will be the case for most people.
The “Prepper” would already have had a location to go to be safe, supplies, alternative power sources, a source of heat and way of reproducing the food he/she needs. You’ve probably heard about that movement but thought it would never really happen, well it does all the time just look at counties like Venezuela, oil dropped in price and so went the economy. Like the skills mentioned above if you haven’t already prepped you can’t do that in the next two weeks either.
People panic buy rushing out to stores to buy all kinds of stuff simply to have it, but food is perishable and while it will help in the short term it is of limited use. For example buying 30 boxes of “Mac and Cheese” may make you think OK I’m good for dinner for 30 days. But think about it, you need butter, water, salt and milk. Two of these need refrigeration and one needs purification. Did you plan for the other stuff? Milk doesn’t even keep 30 days even if you have refrigeration. As before panic is not the answer, careful thought is.
So what do city folk do?
What is the answer for the modern person living in a major city? Start with planning and your time horizon isn’t “72 hours” nor 30 days. I can suggest to look at Venezuela, turn your balcony into a garden and attempt to mitigate things as much as possible. Money will become scarce as many will loose their jobs and to some extent useless as people would prefer hard goods like eggs to fiat currency.
Governments are always telling us to “prepare” with 72 hour kits, but then what? While the topic of what to prepare is large and complex start with water, can you purify your own if needed without electricity? After that think of foods like rice and beans that have proteins and carbs and can keep you going. Black beans and rice is a staple in many countries, these foods are cheap and will keep you alive.
Think about foods which are both comfort and can be traded. For example everyone will grow tomatoes but if that is all you have wouldn’t something else be nice to go with it? I won’t go into what to prepare as there are many great sites out there that do just that just google it.
Start Small
Again don’t panic! Remember the three outcomes I described above? Get the food your family will need until you can grow or barter alternatives, plant seeds, learn skills and plan. Have a back up plan, for example if the lights go out it would be really great to have light. You will not succeed at everything overnight but panic will not help. Maybe you think its too lates to start, but ask yourself where you will be in a year if you don’t do anything towards learning over this year. It is never too late to start and the sooner you do the better things will be.
Keep on Keeping On
Human strength is its adaptability, its ability to learn, to care, to share and help. Keep doing what will help and eventually you will get there. Good luck and good prepping and above all stay calm no matter what the headlines say.